Despite the recent appointment of new regulatory heads and a fresh governing board for the oil and gas sector, Nigeria’s heavy reliance on imported fuel and crude oil is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. This persistent dependence comes even as the country grapples with a complex “price war” between local refiners and marketers. Petrol imports into West Africa surged to 1.8 million metric tonnes in the final months of last year the highest volume recorded in a year underscoring the significant gap that local production has yet to fill.
The situation remains tense as pump prices stay stubbornly high, often exceeding N800 per litre in various parts of the country. In the Federal Capital Territory, some major retailers have been seen dispensing fuel at as much as N920 per litre, while others sell for N739. This massive price disparity persists despite the Dangote Refinery reducing its ex-refinery price to N699. It appears that many marketers are hesitant to lower their prices, opting instead to maintain higher margins while local production remains unstable.
Data from international maritime sources shows that over 170 vessels were cleared to discharge petroleum products in Nigeria during the month of November alone. The list of importers includes almost every major player in the downstream sector, from the NNPC Trading Limited to private firms like TotalEnergies, Ardova, and even the Dangote group itself. This high volume of imports ensured a steady supply during the busy festive season, but it also highlighted the fact that local refining capacity is still not meeting the national daily demand of roughly 52.9 million litres.
The Dangote Refinery, currently the nation’s primary source of local petrol, has faced its own share of operational hurdles. Reports indicate that the facility has been undergoing essential maintenance on its main processing units, which temporarily reduced its output. While the refinery management has clarified that other units remain functional and continue to produce diesel and aviation fuel, the temporary dip in gasoline production meant that imports had to act as the primary buffer for the market.
Industry experts and stakeholders believe that the new leadership at the NMDPRA and NUPRC faces a steep mountain to climb. While there is hope that these new appointments will bring transparency and institutional reform, many argue that structural weaknesses in the value chain cannot be fixed overnight. The consensus among analysts is that a healthy mix of local refining and regulated imports is necessary to prevent any single entity from monopolizing the energy supply of over 200 million people.
Moving forward, the focus for the new regulators will likely be on increasing crude oil production and ensuring that the Petroleum Industry Act is followed to the letter. Stakeholders are calling for a target of four to five million barrels per day to satisfy both local refineries and the export market. For now, however, the “petrol war” continues, and the era of fuel importation in Nigeria is far from over.
