Ismail Omipidan, former Chief Press Secretary to immediate past Osun State Governor Gboyega Oyetola, has questioned the feasibility of securing 1.5 million votes for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in Osun State in the 2027 presidential election.
Omipidan warned that setting an ambitious electoral target without considering the state’s voting history and political realities could undermine the All Progressives Congress (APC) and weaken its chances of mobilising voters.
He also expressed concern over the emerging political arrangements for Tinubu’s re election campaign in the state, particularly the reported emergence of Governor Ademola Adeleke as Osun coordinator of the president’s campaign.
In an opinion article, the former aide argued that the APC leadership must be careful not to alienate loyal party members who have invested time and resources in building its structures. He maintained that their support would be essential to any successful campaign.
Omipidan said he first heard about the proposed 1.5 million vote target less than 24 hours after the APC lost the August 15, 2026, governorship election in Osun State.
His concerns, he explained, grew after the party’s National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, reportedly repeated the target. The APC lost the election to Adeleke, who contested on the platform of the Accord Party.
According to Omipidan, Osun’s presidential election results over the years raise serious questions about the possibility of securing such a large number of votes in 2027.
He noted that the state had never recorded up to one million votes for a presidential candidate in previous elections, making the 1.5 million target particularly ambitious.
Citing figures from the 2011 presidential election, Omipidan said the Action Congress of Nigeria candidate secured 299,711 votes in Osun, while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) received 188,409 votes. The state had 1,342,289 registered voters at the time.
In the 2015 election, the APC won Osun with 383,603 votes, defeating the PDP, which polled 249,929 votes. Registered voters stood at 1,407,107.
He added that the APC secured 347,634 votes in the state during the 2019 presidential election, compared with 337,377 for the PDP.
The pattern changed in 2023, when the PDP received 353,860 votes in Osun, ahead of the APC’s 342,941.
For Omipidan, these figures show the scale of the challenge facing anyone seeking to secure 1.5 million presidential votes in the state, particularly without a major increase in voter participation.
He acknowledged that turnout in presidential elections could differ from that recorded during governorship polls but insisted that such differences must be reflected in the party’s calculations.
“Historically, Osun State has never posted up to a million votes in any presidential election, and it will not happen next year, unless some persons just want to write figures,” he said.
Beyond the vote target, Omipidan raised questions about the political implications of Adeleke’s reported role in Tinubu’s re election campaign. He argued that while bringing influential political figures into the campaign could be useful, the APC must ensure that the move does not weaken its existing structures or leave its members feeling sidelined.
He warned that party loyalists who believe their contributions are being overlooked could become less committed to the campaign, affecting the grassroots mobilisation needed to attract voters across the state.
Omipidan also cautioned against political manoeuvres that could create tension between Tinubu and Minister of Marine and Blue Economy Adegboyega Oyetola, a prominent APC figure in Osun.
“President Tinubu and Oyetola must tread softly and cautiously,” he wrote, urging both leaders to consider the possible consequences of the emerging political arrangements.
He argued that those promoting the arrangement could unintentionally deepen divisions if they failed to account for the interests of established party members and leaders.
According to him, the APC’s success in the 2027 election will depend partly on its ability to manage internal disagreements, rebuild confidence among its members and create a campaign structure that encourages active participation.
Omipidan further stressed that political strategies must reflect the realities of individual states. He maintained that an approach that works in one part of the country may not produce similar results in Osun, where local political loyalties, voter expectations and competing interests could shape the outcome.
He said electoral mobilisation involves more than bringing prominent politicians together or announcing ambitious vote targets. Understanding what motivates voters and party members, he argued, is equally important.
To explain this, Omipidan referred to Rational Choice Theory, associated with economist and philosopher Adam Smith, which examines how people make decisions based on their perceived interests and available alternatives.
He said voters do not necessarily make electoral choices based solely on party affiliation or the identity of a candidate. Their decisions may also depend on what they believe each candidate or political platform can offer them.
Omipidan maintained that political arrangements considered beneficial by party leaders would not automatically translate into widespread support among ordinary members and voters.
He therefore urged the APC leadership to engage relevant stakeholders in Osun, address grievances within its ranks and strengthen the party’s grassroots structures ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
He maintained that a realistic electoral target, combined with effective mobilisation and efforts to reconcile competing interests, would provide a stronger foundation for Tinubu’s re election campaign in the state.
