China announced on Thursday that it will not participate in nuclear disarmament talks “at this stage,” following the expiration of the US-Russia New START treaty—a move raising fears of a renewed global arms race.
The New START agreement, which formally ended on February 5, had placed limits on deployed strategic warheads for the world’s two largest nuclear powers. With its expiration, experts warn the door is open for China to expand its arsenal, though Beijing has resisted international pressure to join fresh negotiations.
“China has always maintained that advancement in arms control and disarmament must adhere to global strategic stability,” said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian. He emphasized that China’s nuclear capabilities are on a different scale from those of the United States and Russia, and therefore it will not engage in such negotiations at this time.
The treaty, originally signed in 2010, had capped each side at 1,550 deployed strategic warheads, a nearly 30% reduction from the 2002 limit. It also allowed on-site inspections, though these were suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic and have not resumed.
Despite controlling over 80% of the world’s nuclear warheads between them, Russia and the United States have seen their arms agreements unravel in recent years. China’s arsenal is growing rapidly, with roughly 550 strategic launchers—still far below the caps that governed Russia and the US under New START.
Observers warn that without a renewed multilateral framework—including Beijing—there is a real risk of a new nuclear arms race in the coming years, raising tensions across East Asia and beyond.
